TX State Rep. 28 - run-off
Bentzin, Howard head to runoff in western Travis House race: “Democrat Donna Howard and Republican Ben Bentzin survived Round One on Tuesday and will meet in a runoff election to see who will replace Todd Baxter in the Texas House.”
2005 Special Election State House District 48:
Ben Bentzin | REP | 5,124 | 37.80%
Ben Easton | LIB | 310 | 2.28%
Donna Howard | DEM | 6,705 | 49.46%
Kathy Rider | DEM | 1,416 | 10.44%
I have a friend who thinks the Democrats really flubbed this race. For whatever reason (I haven’t been following the race very closely, although I did my civic duty) both Donna Howard and Kathy Rider felt compelled to run against each other, and probably split the Democratic vote. However, unlike my friend, I don’t think that this means the Republicans will retain the seat.
Some background: this is Todd Baxter’s seat, who was a state representative tied very closely to Tom DeLay, and who resigned last year. Ostensibly, this was so that he could spend more time with his family, but many observers note that he won by the slimmest of margins in 2004, and with his close ties to the current DeLay scandal (he was one of the candidates in 2002 to take “tainted” money from DeLay’s organizations), it wasn’t likely he’d be able to mount a credible campaign.
Of course, the fact that two Democrats ran could be seen to reflect poorly on the state leadership and coordination by the state party. But does the state party really have the power anyway to induce candidates not to enter a race? One could argue that the underdog in a primary is being selfish and egotistical by contesting the race and possibly damaging the chances of the front runner in the general election. It happened to an extent to Bill Bradley and John McCain in 2000. But that’s our democracy, and given the choice I’d rather let the field contain those who want to run and have the means to run than shout down mavericks out of some sense of party loyalty.
I think that the issues will drive voters to Howard. The only reason we’re having this election is because our idiot governator is going to call a special session to fix school finance. Howard and Rider were both convincing candidates to the voters of the district because they both have education experience. Bentzin is a corporate executive; what the hell does he know about fixing public schools?
Howard was also a school board member for Eanes ISD. This is a person that parents in the district have previously given responsibility to for their kids’ education. I think that’s going to be a very powerful reason for voters to go Howard. I don’t see Bentzin able to offer anything similar. Howard also has the endorsement of the teacher’s union and both local papers (both the moderate/conservative daily and the alternative weekly). Bentzin is backed by business, law enforcement, and tort reform associations. But these aren’t the issues driving this election; voters are focused on education after Perry’s failure to successfully broker a compromise in the last special session. (To be fair, Perry has limited powers, but it was his special session, and his dithering on publicly supporting any position in the Lege probably didn’t help.)
Another argument is that now the local Republicans have the snot scared out of them, and they’re more likely to turn out than the Democrats. I’m not sure I buy this either. I don’t know why the Democrats would be any less motivated to pick up a seat in the Texas House and stick on to the current prevailing political climate; they have to know as well as the Republicans do that this will be a close race in the end. The Democrats have more to gain by a win than the Republicans do by merely retaining the seat.
Also, I think the hardcore voters who voted in this election are those who are most likely to show up in the run-off. It’s very rare for run-offs to get anywhere near the turnout as the first election. Those voters who have already cast ballots in January (of all months) have already shown the dedication to the race to turn them out again. I just don’t put much stock in mystery voters.
So I still don’t understand why Donna Howard is supposed to lose so badly. 60% of the voters in the district voted for a Democrat. Even if 25% of all those who voted this past Tuesday stay home for run-off and Bentzin gets half of Rider’s remaining voters and all of Easton’s remaining voters, then Howard still comes out ahead.
I also think that if you accept that it’s a Republican district, then it’s encouranging for Howard that the hardcore voters who showed up for a special election in the middle of January (state elections in Texas are usually in March or November) broke for Democrats. Those are the people who are going to show up for the run-off; you can’t count on “presidential” voters to magically appear for such an obscure election. It’s like depending on the 18-29 crowd to push progressive politicians over the top in general elections (i.e. it doesn’t happen).
And I don’t accept at all that it’s a Republican district. In 2000 the Democrat beat the Republican by almost a 21 point magin. In 2002, with the help of (allegedly) illegal campaign funds from Tom DeLay and the RNC, as well as the general war-mongering, etc., that benefited Republicans across TX that year, Baxter beat Kitchen by 4300 votes, and only a 7 point magin. In 2004, Baxter won with barely 150 votes over White and a 0.21% margin.
2000:
Jill Warren | REP | 21,300 | 37.24%
Ann Kitchen | DEM | 33,687 | 58.89%
Philip Durgin | LIB | 2,208 | 3.86%
2002:
Todd Baxter | REP | 25,309 | 52.37%
Ann Kitchen(I) | DEM | 21,928 | 45.37%
Michael Badnarik | LIB | 1,084 | 2.24%
2004:
Todd Baxter(I) | REP | 34,405 | 50.10%
Kelly White | DEM | 34,258 | 49.89%
If anything, this is a district that popularly elects Democrats and flirted with a Republican who had a lot of other things going for him over two election cycles.
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