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I like analogies. I like them a lot. Those of you who have seen me comment around the ‘Vine over the last couple years have probably seen me make my own fair share of analogies when discussing complex issues. A well-crafted analogy is a way to increase the contrast on the image, to pick out the edges that might otherwise be hidden in subtle shadows.

Few areas are as ripe for analogies, as in need of clear contrasts, as those involving complex choices: like partisan politics. Is there any question that lends itself to such glib answers in the face of such profound realities? Given the vast number of areas over which the president has direct or indirect influence, how, exactly, is a voter reasonably to make an informed choice?

Enter the analogy.

But analogies only take one so far, and not all analogies are applied correctly. Some analogies are definitely better than others. But I think one class of analogies definitely applies well to partisan political politics, and that is: technology.

If you’ve been on Newsvine for a substantial amount of time, you’ve probably stumbled across at least one major argument involving technology partisans here. The epitome of the class, of course, is the Apple vs. PC discussion. There are others to be sure: Canon vs. Nikon SLRs, the console “wars”, and (until recently) the format battle between Sony’s Blu-Ray and Toshiba HD DVD.

I’m certainly not the first one to analogize battles over technology to battles over the leader of the free world. There have been many over the past few months. Some of my favorite are this analogy to Apple using the classic “1984″ Macintosh ad and this analogy to the console wars. Heck, I’m not even the first one to analogize Hillary to HD-DVD.

The parallels are interesting, and fun to make, but ultimately are meaningless. Just the same, is it perhaps possible that Hillary Clinton is the HD DVD of this election?

HD DVD and Blu Ray both had their advantages. Where HD DVD held an early lead in studio support (as the content makers, maybe some of the super-delegates of the entertainment world), Blu-Ray held an early advantage among hardware makers (the nuts & bolts party organization people).

HD DVD with its cheaper production costs for players held more down-market appeal, while Blu-Ray held a higher financial barrier to entry. Hillary Clinton has done well largely among the lower financial tiers while Obama’s support picks up steam above the $50,000 income level.

As the campaign wore on, cumulative HD DVD sales began to fall behind those of Blu-Ray. Hillary Clinton holds a deficit in states won, delegates won, and the popular vote.

In the face of consumer demand figures, Warner Bros. defected from a neutral party to throw its support fully behind Blu-Ray. This happened after the 2007 holiday season failed to ignite demand for HD DVD, despite heavy markdowns to players. In the face of early electoral success and the shattering of the (perhaps overblown) inevitably of the Clinton campaign, Obama secured the endorsement of a Democratic Party heavyweight: Teddy Kennedy. Neither endorsement alone ended the campaign, however.

But the switch of Warner Bros. did result in a cascade of switches and new support for Blu-Ray. Additionally, the examination of Warner’s stated reason, the 2007 holiday season (maybe Super Tuesday for the entertainment industry?) convinced other industry players to make the move. Obama’s growing support among super-delegates surely received a boost from such an establishment player’s endorsement and his performance in the Super Tuesday contests. He’s increased his number of super-delegate endorsements since Super Tuesday by an order of magnitude over Clinton.

Mid-way through the format war, some seemed happy with both formats. Samsung and LG even came out with dual-format players so consumers wouldn’t have to decide between them. Would that we could do this in presidential politics.

After the disappointing holiday season, those in the industry closest to the consumer, the retailers and rental services, seem to have made a decision to force an end to the format war to spur consumer demand. Sales would suffer as long as there was uncertainty about who would win. No one wanted to get stuck with a modern day Betamax player. Democrats are now afraid of the effects of a candidate who ultimately wins the nomination, but is so bloodied as to lose the general election in November. (It doesn’t matter if you’re choice is technically superior if companies stop making movies for the device.)

To this end, Blockbuster reiterated their support for Blu-Ray, and Netflix announced they would support only Blu-Ray going forward. Best Buy announced they would push Blu-Ray over HD DVD players (while still carrying both), and Wal-Mart and Target finally weighed in on the side of Blu-Ray. Some major players continued to hang back, however (e.g. Amazon.com). Ultimately, Toshiba recognized the writing was on the wall, and dropped out.

That’s not to say this analogy is perfect. Blu-Ray was the first in the race, and perhaps the odds-on favorite for most of the time the format war went on. HD DVD, by contrast, was the insurgent. Where HD DVD had a stable standard early, Blu-Ray’s standards have undergone multiple revisions. The changeability of Clinton’s campaign messaging has been much satirized.

So what does that make the Richardson endorsement of Obama?

I think Richardson would like to be the Wal-Mart of this election cycle. As I see it, once Wal-Mart decided on Blu-Ray, there was too little retail support for HD DVD to really remain viable. Richardson has indicated that his eventual endorsement was also motivated to see this thing resolved, a sentiment shared by a growing number of Democrats.

Unfortunately, I don’t think Richardson is this year’s Wal-Mart. At best, he’s Best Buy or Netflix: important to note which way the tide is flowing, but not a game-ender himself.

Maureen Dowd of The NY Times recently wrote that there are three potentially game-ending endorsements left among the Democrats: John Edwards, Al Gore, and Nancy Pelosi. Unfortunately, none of these three seem inclined to endorse either candidate in time for it to really matter. Each have made noises about remaining neutral. While any of the three could become the Wal-Mart of this campaign, all three seem determined to remain Amazon.com.

Of course, if this analogy holds, then John McCain could be only one thing: VHS.

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hillary-clinton, blu-ray, hd-dvd, barack-obama

Posted in Politics, Writing